8. Assessment of the risk

Estimate the likelihood/probability and consequences for each of the identified hazards to be realised at each step.

The procedure may be as follows:

  • establish the consequence or severity for each identified hazard. There may be more than one consequence for a given hazard. Each must be assessed individually.
  • establish the likelihood/probability of the consequence occurring for each identified Hazard.
  • use a 'risk matrix' to assign a score for each identified hazard. An organisation may develop its own or use the already developed criteria for evaluating consequence and likelihood and may determine the risk score using the site's risk matrix.

The following tables helps in determining the likelihood, severity and the risk.

DETERMINE CONSEQUENCE

DETERMINE CONSEQUENCE

Consequence

Injury

Property Damage or process loss

Environment Impact

Low/ Insignificant

Minor/ short term injury

Low financial losses

Limited damage to minimal area of low significance

Minor

Reversible
Disability
or impairment

Medium financial
loss

Minor effect on biological
or physical environmenMinor effect on biological
or physical environment

Moderate

Moderate
ineversible
disability

High financial loss

Moderate short term
effects but not affecting
eco-system

Major

Single fatality

Major financial loss

Serious medium term
environmental effects

Catastrophic

Multiple fatality
and/or significant
ineversible effects

Financial loss

Serious long term
environmental damage

DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD

DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD

Rating

Frequency

Description

Frequency example

A

Almost certain

Happens often

M ore than 1 event per month

B

Likely

Could easily happen

More than 1 event per year

C

Possible

Could happen and has occurred
here or elsewhere

1 event per 1 to 10 year

D

Unlikely

Hasn’t happened yet but could

1 event per 10 to 100 year
(e.g. Within a single mine life)

E

Rare

Conceivable but only in extreme circumstances

Less than 1 event per 100 year

 

 
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